Primary schools face drop in demand as families move out of London and government funding drops

By Julia Gregory, local democracy reporter

Primary schools in Kensington and Chelsea are facing a drop in demand as families move out of London and an estimated £0.4m fall in government funding.

The exodus from London which has been increased by the coronavirus pandemic and the impact of Brexit means an eight per cent drop in admissions.

One school has already said it will cut a reception class of 30 pupils next year to help it cope with the change and save money.

The borough’s primaries are all rated as ‘outstanding’ and ‘good’ by Ofsted inspectors.

Jagdeep Birdi, who is the executive head of Colville primary in Portobello and Marlborough primary in South Kensington, said: “The reality is we are going to have fewer pupils in reception.

“Families are moving out, it’s happening quite fast.”

This year there were 739 applications for reception places for children from the borough – down eight per cent on the 806 applications in 2020.

It means there’s a projected 11 per crent surplus capacity, mainly in the north of the borough where schools already face the challenge of coping with the emotional scars of Grenfell.

The council warned that the falling rolls will mean a £0.45m or 0.6 per cent cut in the dedicated schools grant from the government. The borough’s primaries will see an average cut of £5,126 per pupil.

It’s in sharp contrast to the current Year 6 for children aged 10 and 11. It’s one of the largest cohorts in most borough schools because of the birth rate peak of 2013/14.

The change which started pre-pandemic is not unique to Kensington and Chelsea but could also have an impact on jobs.

Overall schools across London are seeing an eight per cent drop at primary level.

The council’s director of education, Ian Heggs, said he would be looking at the census figures in October to examine the impact. He told the schools forum that the move “would have financial implications”.

It’s likely to  lead to a recommended cut of 60 to 90 reception places.

St Mary’s RC primary in North Kensington has already decided to cut a class of 30 from next year because of the falling school rolls.

At its last Ofsted inspection in 2016 it had 264 pupils and a capacity of 380.

Mr Heggs said his team are looking at primaries which have two entry forms and one and one-and-a-half classes.

However he stressed that schools with just one entry level class will not face a cut to just a “half class” size.

And nine primary schools which are thought to be at risk of financial problems are talking to the council about ways to cope.