Falling pupil numbers in Westminster Primary schools is financial red flag

By Ben Lynch, Local Democracy Reporter

More than a quarter of Westminster’s primary school places are empty, as the council warns of the financial implications of falling pupil numbers.

As is being seen across much of London, the level of surplus capacity in the City’s primary schools is increasing, having reached 25.9 per cent in January this year. This is up from 24.1 per cent in 2023, and 23.1 per cent in 2022.

Council officers have warned that, due to schools’ income being directly linked to their pupil numbers, “there is a risk of school budgets falling into deficit which could come back to the council if they cannot balance their budgets”.

According to London Councils analysis published earlier this year, the capital could see a decline in reception pupils of 4.4 per cent by 2027/28, alongside a 4.3 per cent drop in demand for year seven places.

In a report reviewing the financial performance of Westminster City council’s first few months of 2024/25, officers raised the falling pupil numbers as posing risks to school budgets.

“In terms of longer-term financial planning there continues to be a lack of certainty from government over longer-term funding of councils,” they wrote.

“The Local Government Association is pushing for multi-year financial settlements that would allow councils to adopt a longer-term approach rather than an annual process highly dependent on annual financial settlements each December/January.”

In the same report, officers described how the surplus capacity would be ‘much higher’ if action had not been taken removing spaces from primary provision.

“The surplus capacity has therefore remained stable but will need to be reduced to a level that is considered reasonable for an Inner London borough with significant mobility,” they added.

At last week’s audit and performance committee meeting, Sarah Newman, Bi-Borough executive director of Children’s Services, told the committee: “It is our responsibility to make sure that schools can balance their budgets. If they can’t we then work with school governors to come up with plans such as federation and amalgamation in order to bring the deficits down.”

Conservative councillor Ian Rowley later quizzed officers on what work had been done to tackle the deficits some schools were facing. Ms Newman responded saying 14 forms of entry, meaning the number of classes in each year group, have been removed in the last four years. She added a number of amalgamations have taken place already, including between Churchill Gardens and Millbank Academy earlier this year.

Pictured top: Westminster City council offices on Victoria Street (Picture: LDRS)