Four takeaways from Charlton’s stalemate at Lincoln: We run the numbers on the Addicks’ dwindling top six hopes

Charlton played out a dire 0-0 draw with Lincoln City. Here are Louis Mendez’s four takeaways from Sincil Bank.

NOT A CLASSIC

Any fans who were unable to make it to Lincolnshire due to the train strikes should count their lucky stars. Those who did are probably seeing if there’s a football supporters’ union they could join in the hope of being immediately balloted to strike from attending games. It was an awful contest between two bottom-half League One sides.

One shot on target from either side – with Lincoln registering 0.36 expected goals (xG) and Charlton a paltry 0.15 xG says all you need to know. Charlton’s best chance saw Miles Leaburn’s effort grabbed millimetres from going over the line – but that was it really.

Garner had switched to a 4-4-2 for this game and it felt like it had a level of success. Leaburn looked a handful and the Addicks were marginally the better side. But as the game wore on it never really looked like a winner was coming at either end.

TWO-POINT CUSHION

We’re a quarter of the way through the campaign and Charlton are two points above the drop zone. They’re winless in eight league games. They’ve yet to win on the road this season. It’s probably too early for alarm bells to start ringing, especially with the mid-table region of League One so tight.

But, for the second season running, any hopes of being serious players in the play-off race are all but over in October. The average amount of points required to finish sixth over the last five completed League One seasons is just under 75. Charlton are on 13 points after 12 games. So, they’d need to average just over 1.82 points per game over their remaining 34 outings to reach roughly the required amount for a top-six finish.

Only the top five in last season’s League One enjoyed points returns above that 1.82 threshold over the course of 46 games. I just don’t see this Charlton side being able to match the likes of last year’s Sunderland, Sheffield Wednesday, Milton Keynes, Rotherham or Wigan – even if it is for a slightly shorter amount of time.

I've ran the numbers on what it would *roughly* take for us to get 6th. For the rest of this season we need to get 1.82 points per game.

In 20/21 Sunderland, Sheff Wed, MK, Rotherham & Wigan were the only sides to get 1.82+ ppg (over the season) & we're not as good as them #cafc pic.twitter.com/mIknDzvp5g

— Louis Mendez (@LouisMend) October 9, 2022

A CLEAN SHEET DRAW

It’s only Charlton’s second shutout of the campaign but it must be chalked down as something reasonably positive. For what it’s worth, I thought Lincoln looked awful going forward but the unblemished defensive record will hopefully give the Addicks something to build upon.

When needed, Joe Wollacott made a superb stop to deny Danny Mandroiu from the edge of the area – but that was pretty much all he had to do as the blunt Imps failed to make any real impression as an attacking force.

Charlton’s own inadequacies in front of goal – failing to score more than once in a game since the 5-1 win over Plymouth in August – means they need to be able to stop goals at the other end in order to win games. Let’s hope, unlike that victory over the Pilgrims, this wasn’t a one-off. We’ll see.

WINGS CLIPPED

Jes Rak-Sakyi, Charlie Kirk and substitute Corey Blackett-Taylor were all very quiet yesterday. And with that, Charlton’s threat disappeared.

When those wide players aren’t involved in games, they don’t create from elsewhere. Four, or arguably five, of the Addicks last five league goals have all been created from wide areas. Garner will want to see Scott Fraser rekindle his early season goal involvements.

And the boss also admitted he didn’t get the reaction he wanted from Corey Blackett-Taylor this week after leaving him out against Oxford. He said: “I was disappointed with that impact, and that’s something we need to look at,” when asked about his cameo appearance. They can ill afford for their wingmen to have their wings clipped at this stage of the season.