Tories risk ‘lowest-ever’ total of MPs in South London, poll suggests

The Conservatives risk their “lowest ever” total of MPs in South London, according to a shock poll which shows the party to have zero MPs in the region following the next general election, a political expert has said.

Professor Tony Travers, of the London School of Economics, said the poll painted a “bleak picture” for Conservatives in South London, where the party currently has nine MPs.

The MRP poll – conducted by Survation for the Best for Britain campaign group – showed the Tories losing to Labour in Bromley and Chislehurst, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Beckenham, Croydon South, Old Bexley and Sidup, Orpington, Sutton and Cheam, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

An MRP poll uses a survey to create a seat-by-seat breakdown to predict constituency level results.

Professor Travers said: “Apart from Croydon Central, there is a band of Conservative MPs running from Wimbledon to Bexleyheath and Crayford via Orpington. 

“It would be shocking if all of them lost their seats, given some have significant majorities.”

Separate MRP polling by three other groups – YouGov, Survation and Find Out Now – show the Tories would win between five and zero seats, with two of the surveys predicting they would hold Old Bexley and Sidcup.

The professor puts the results of the poll, in part, down to the rise of Reform UK.

He said: “The rise of Reform UK has created a big split in the Conservatives between traditional centrist and the more right wing.

“If Reform takes votes away from the Conservatives they will make it easier for Labour to win.”

Professor Travers said a change in South London’s demographic has also caused a shift away from the party.

He said: “South London is becoming much younger and there are more minority groups who are more likely – but not always – to vote Labour.

“The big risk to the Conservatives is when they become so weak at a local level – in places like Lewisham, Southwark and Lambeth – it becomes impossible to win MPs.”

Professor Travers said a complete wipeout of Conservative MPs in the region would not only be a concern for the party but also for democracy.

He said: “If Labour completely takes over – which in the end is unlikely – there will be no competition in politics.

“Opposition exists for a reason to hold the majority party to account and be a critical examiner. 

“It helps to stop the party becoming factionalised which tends to happen when there is no long-term opposition.”

Across the UK, the Survation poll indicated the Conservatives would be wiped out in Scotland and Wales and hold just 98 seats in England, with Labour on course for a landslide, winning 468 seats.

Professor Travers said: “There is still time for an improvement in the party’s position, but the next election appears almost certain to produce the lowest-ever total of Conservative MPs in London, South and North of the river”.

Pictured top: Professor Tony Travers, of the London School of Economics (Picture: London School of Economics)